Apple,Services和Moats

  • Apple宣布了另一部手机,但几乎所有手机都是伟大的,大多数戏剧性创新都在我们的市场成熟时落后于我们。真正明显改善的一个地方是在相机中,苹果和谷歌正在使用计算摄影来获得越来越多的物理定律

  • It’s more interesting to look at accessories and services, where Apple is building layer on layer of defensive fortification - hardware and software, free and subscription, high margin and low margin, all of which support the core product and some of which bring in a few billion of spare change. This is the iteration/optimisation/execution phase of the market.

  • 我非常令人难以置信是由Apple的电视服务 - 表演可能是好的,但苹果公司的能力和智能性没有任何独一无二的东西,苹果不是在这里不缺乏缺点或睡觉的电视。That partly reflects the tech industry’s general failure to break into TV, but maybe it doesn’t matter - Apple‘s budget for buying shows is more than its total cashflow in 2007, the year it announced the original Apple TV and something called an iPhone.


苹果(Apple)推出第一款现代智能手机已经十多年了,而我们正面临着收益递减的局面。大部分明显的重大改进已经完成,根本创新的空间已经所剩无几。现在的智能手机和2007年的个人电脑差不多——与其说苹果“忘记了如何创新”,不如说智能手机和个人电脑一样,已经通过了s曲线的阶段。苹果和它的竞争对手一直在制造出色的手机,而我们对它的关心却越来越少。

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在相机中,仍然可能是明显改善的地方。苹果and Google are now leapfrogging each other every year (portrait mode, night mode), and it’s worth noting that most of the improvement is actually from software - integrating multiple sensors and the GPU with software and especially machine learning (this is why they call it a camera系统)。我写了这个趋势'计算摄影' 今年早些时候。

但是,另外一半的iPhone故事是Apple构建的所有东西周围iPhone。我们经常将其分解为“配件”和“服务”(特别是Apple谈到“服务收入”),但我认为我们可以将所有这些集合在一起作为“Outworks”。

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In this image, there’s the central bastioned fortress itself, and then there are layer upon layer of outworks - structures, earthworks, moats and firing points that create a carefully worked-out system of mutual support and flanking fire, and push the enemy further and further away.

Hence, everything from the HomePod and Watch to Apple TV, the credit card or iMessage make it more likely that you’ll stay on iPhone, and this applies whether they’re hardware or software, whether they’re paid-for or free, and whether they’re high margin or low margin. This of course goes right back to the original iTunes Music Store, where it was very clear that Apple got far more financial value from all of the iPods bought to use the store than from its commission on sales on the store itself. This was why in 2007 Jeff Zucker (then CEO of NBC Universal) said that Apple should give TV companies a share of revenue from iPod Video sales. Today Apple makes a lot of money from some of these things (when you have a billion users, ancillary revenue adds up), but the defensive value is key.

有防守价值,还有钱,但我认为另一件事的另一个有趣的镜头是询问他们是如何'appley'。他们为多么独特的苹果敏感性或独特的Apple技术能力,周围带来了多少,例如,芯片设计或硬件/软件集成?

首先,光谱的一端,手表或AirPods涉及行业领先的半导体工作,硬件软件集成,电力优化、高效的生产在大规模和用户体验都是非常特定于苹果和其它更模块化的企业很难匹配。苹果的所有功能都集中在一个点上(这就是为什么它是一个功能性组织而不是产品组织的原因)。

其次,有些东西可能不一定是任何独特的主要技术或特别是集成,但有一些独特的苹果敏感性。我越来越多地看待这一点,因为苹果在你的计算经验中作为一个值得信赖的聚会延伸,是在您的在线体验中成为可值得信赖的派对。旧的MAC命题是,如果这个硬件工作,或者如果您要打破您的计算机,则不必担心如果您做错了。Mac是友好和安全的,而命令行是一个没有警卫的嗡嗡声。今天,担心和危险的领域已从硬件转移到新闻,或在线隐私或商业模式。这意味着我们从即插即用硬件或沙箱应用程序来策划内容:

  • 我可以相信这个消息吗?Apple策划新闻应用程序中的内容

  • 我能把这个游戏托付给我的孩子吗?有战利品盒和成人主题吗?苹果库宁汉拱廊

这同样适用于信用卡,或确实对健康工具。这些人依赖于巧妙的工程和整合的相当数量,但他们也带来了特定的品牌承诺。卡片的奖励可能不会特别印象一点,但是没有任何费用,没有费用,以及围绕试图帮助您了解您的花费并分解心理壁垒来思考它的UI。而且,当然,Apple对隐私进行了很多谈判,这是一个自我服务点(它没有广告业务),但没有减少。

然而,我认为第三类是愤世嫉俗者可能会说苹果所做的东西,因为它可以,也许应该很难看出苹果在不同的地方。苹果显然迟到了媒体,订阅音乐。它确实带来了一个故事,在基本上商品流产品之上,播放列表的手工策策。但是,对我来说,这对策划真正的是销售主张是多么重要的。

这适用于新的“Apple TV Plus”订阅电视服务。我们已经看到了促销卷轴和拖车看起来像好电视节目,但绝对没有任何特定于苹果。他们不是解决问题或改变关于电视体验或产品的任何东西。苹果刚刚支付了一堆洛杉矶人才做的东西,并将结果放在一个应用程序中。节目可能都是很大的,但其中任何一个都可以在Netflix,亚马逊或HBO上。Apple正在使用它来推动购买和保留iPhone,每年免费进入,这可能会有效,但它不比自由披萨一年的“Appley”。

我也不确定'防御性的电视是如何或实际上的任何内容,因为现在几乎没有锁定了。如我在这里写道,在过去,当您在iTunes上购买音乐时(或确实购买VHS磁带),您被锁定到该平台上,如果您切换到不同的设备,则会丢失对您购买的一切的访问。但是,现在音乐是一个流式订阅,所以你通过在Apple Music和Spotify之间切换来损失很少。与音乐不同,订阅电视平台,包括独家内容,但如果您取消他们,您就不会失去任何留下的东西拥有如果您取消了HBO或AMC,那就多于你就是这样,您可以随时将其再次打开。必威足球没有锁定。这些平台必须以每个新的节目逐个月给您一个月 - 与iTunes不同,他们不会将您锁定在您已经承诺的内容。反过来意味着内容具有营销和保留值 - 但是自由披萨也是如此。

这里也有一个讽刺意味。人们希望苹果在过去进入电视的原因是电视体验是可怕的,特别是在美国,人们希望苹果以同样的方式改变它。必威足球Apple一直在努力尝试 - 原来的Apple电视设备于2006年底宣布,实际上,更广泛的技术产业以来一直在20世纪90年代初。现在它终于发生了,但它不是由Apple或Microsoft或任何大型技术平台驱动的。科技已经创造了新的备择方案要长达电视(来自YouTube到Twitch或Tiktok的一切),但更改电视来自电视业务范围,虽然可以说是Netflix已催化,Netflix是一家电视公司,不是技术公司

This is why Apple and Google’s TV dongles feel like such an anti-climax, and it also makes me think that Apple’s decision to spend actual money commissioning TV shows is an admission of failure - after all, it never set up a record company or a mobile network (or MVNO). TV isn‘t getting Napstered or iTunesed - it isn’t getting swallowed by someone else’s aggregation platform (or at least, not so far). And yet, Apple is reportedly spending $6bn (over an undefined period) on commissioning TV shows, which is more than its total operating cash flow in the year the iPhone and Apple TV were first announced ($5.47bn), but now just a line-item in the marketing budget. A mobile computer turned out to be a much bigger opportunity than TV.

It should be clear that I’m pretty skeptical of the TV Plus project, but that shouldn’t take away from the broader story - that Apple is, mostly, doing things that are entirely natural and correct for this stage of the smartphone S Curve. 4bn people now have a smartphone, 5bn have a mobile phone and there are only about 5.5bn people over 14 on earth - this is a maturing market, with a maturing product. Apple won the high-end, Google won the rest, and this is now the time to optimise, iterate and execute, while thinking about what might be next. Glasses? Cars? Remember, Apple was working on the iPhone for 5 years before it launched, and Apple’s R&D budget is now larger than its total revenue in 2005.

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