自治车的步骤:在哪里,而不是什么时候

谈论自动驾驶的标准方法,如必威足球图所示,谈论级别。L1是你父亲车里的巡航控制。L2增加了一些传感器,所以如果前面的汽车,并保持在车道标记内,但您仍然需要在车轮上或靠近车道内部。L3将为您推动,但您需要准备接收,4级将在某些情况下为您提供服务,而不是其他情况,而5级不需要人类驾驶员,并且没有方向盘。

这似乎非常简单,直到你开始思考你如何实际部署它 - 关于一些地方比其他地方更容易开车的事实。

As we can already see with the early tests being done with prototype autonomous cars (with their need for a human ‘safety driver’, today these are are effectively L2 or at best L3), autonomy of any kind in one city is different to another - Phoenix is easier than San Francisco, which is easier than Naples or Moscow. This variability applies not just across different cities and countries but also in different parts of each urban landscape: freeways are easier than city centers, which might be easier or harder than suburbs.

它自然地遵循,我们将在某些地方('轻松')在各处之前('容易')的地方可靠地达到一定程度的自主能力的车辆。这些将具有巨大的安全性和经济效益,因此我们将部署它们 - 我们不会等待,直到我们有一个完美的L5汽车,可以在从加德满都到南波士顿的任何地方开车。所以,如果我们叫车偶数L4,我们要说,好吧,哪里我们在谈论吗?我们威力意思是“这个国家的大部分”。但更可能的是,它将在一个邻域中的L4,L3在另一个街道中,只有第三个,并且一辆汽车可能会遇到一个旅程中的所有三个。将您的路线放入地图上,它会告诉您今天是否是L5天。

因此,例如,许多公司在高速公路是一种比城市街道更简单,更严格的环境的基础上,许多公司正在努力为长途卡车进行自主权,并且高速公路占长期的80-90%必威足球- 寿命卡车,所以即使你需要人类司机在每一端接管,也是值得做的,就像在每一必威足球端接管一样,就像一艘乘坐大船进入港口的飞行员一样。因此,该卡车是高速公路上的L4或L5,但城市街道的L2或L3。必威足球

相反,假设一个中型城镇表示,城镇中间只在白天的时候是自主的,而允许的唯一车辆是自主公交车和自主汽车和出租车。如果那些自主出租车永远不会离开预留区域(永远不会在高速公路上),他们可能看起来比汽车更像高尔夫球购物车。必威足球如果他们能够处理剑桥的中心(只要没有人类的司机,而且不是农村的道路,但是无论如何都不会离开剑桥中心,是他们l5还是没有?必威足球'所有用例'是什么意思 - 所有汽车的所有用例,或者这辆车的所有用例?

然后,想象一辆垃圾车自身沿着街道上下船员,但需要从道路的尽头手动驱动到仓库。这是'完全自治吗?'或者是'先进的巡航控制'?有关系吗?

These might seem like purely definitional questions, but they get at the problem that it’s easy to ask ‘when can we have autonomy?’ (and everyone does) but the ‘when’ depends on the ‘where’ and the ‘what’, and these are a matter of incremental deployment of lots of different models in different places over time.

此外,这种部署过程将塑造最终情况。The diagram at the beginning of this piece reminds me painfully of some of the conversations I had about the future of the ‘mobile internet’ in 1999 and 2000. Imagine if a bunch of telecoms people had sat down in 1998 and defined what a ‘partial multimedia terminal’ and ‘advanced multimedia terminal’ would look like and what specs it would have and then told the manufacturers, or rather, the ‘suppliers’, to go away and come back in a decade with products that matched the spec. That isn’t how it happened - rather, the process of creating the technology shaped the final result. We tried many paths, and worked out the ones that worked (and in the end the telcos were not in control anymore and the ‘suppliers’ had all changed). We didn’t start with a predetermined conclusion and then go away and build it. In the same way, I sometimes think that talking about L4 or L5 presumes the shape of the outcome - instead, the outcome will be shaped by the process.

显然,这种多面对面的,进化的过程的模型的问题是,自治实际上有一些非常基本的二进制问题 - '我可以读不是看路吗?我可以在车的后面睡觉吗?''进化模型只能带你到目前为止 - 你需要能够告诉别人这辆车是否“自主”。需要在旅行过程中从“自主”模式转换到手动模式的汽车带来了一些重大挑战:人类并不擅长在没有通知的高速上驾驶汽车。Indeed, some people argue that L1 is actually safer than L2 or L3 - with L1 you do know explicitly that it’s you that’s driving the car ALL THE TIME, but sometimes the car will stamp on the brakes when you weren’t looking and save a life.

This is why so much work is going into how the vehicle might communicate with the user - how does it say ‘this is an L5 journey and you can sleep’, or ‘I’ll drive myself for the next hour, and alert you 5 minutes before it’s time for you to take over’? Does that autonomous golf cart just refuse to cross an invisible line into a neighbourhood where it’s not certified for autonomy? (These, incidentally, seem like Apple’s kind of questions.)

与今天的大多数自主权问题一样,还有许多问题而不是答案 - 这是再次尝试预测2018年智能手机市场的形态。但我的观点甚至讨论的条款可能是误导性的。几乎肯定的是,当第一个“自主车”销售时,在2023年或2027年的销售情况下,没有一个贴纸,“4级认证”。可能永远不会有'第一'L4或L5车,或者可能存在许多不同的“第一件”。

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